Youth Engagement and Leadership in Decentralized Indonesia: Evidence from Indonesian Youth Development Index 2015–2023
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Abstract
This study aims to assess whether within-provincial variations in youth development are related to provincial variations in youth engagement and leadership across Indo- nesian provinces from 2015 to 2023, and if the relationships may vary across the con- ditional distribution of the outcome under decentralized governance. A quantitative longitudinal panel design is used to investigate this question utilizing an annual prov- ince-level dataset from the Indonesian Youth Development Index for the years 2015- 2023, based on a balanced panel of 306 province-year observations. The empirical strategy includes descriptive statistics, trend analysis, principal components analysis (PCA), two-way fixed effects, and panel quantile regression. The results indicate that after controlling for province and year fixed effects, there were no statistically signif- icant associations between the four youth development dimensions and engagement and leadership at the time of measurement. The results indicate no systematic con- temporaneous association between the improvement in short-term youth-develop- ment metrics at the provincial level and improved scores for the aggregate Engage- ment & Leadership metric. As decentralization and institutional processes were not directly examined, the outcomes are to be viewed as an indication of a decoupling of participation from development within provinces from 2015-2023; as opposed to testing decentralization or converting institutions. Since we have no data on how decentralization was implemented or what institutional changes occurred (i.e., we do not measure either), our finding should be viewed as evidence of development– participation decoupling in Indonesia’s system of local government; should not be interpreted as a direct assessment of the impact of decentralization.
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